Cable Modem Internet Access Market

Cable Modem Market Statistical Projections

Allied Business

Global data over cable subscriber penetration will increase from 3.3 million subs last year (1999) to 58.6 million subs in 2005, with the U.S. gaining the most momentum, forecast to expand from 2.1 million subs to 14 million.

Andrew Prophet Research & Consulting

By 2000, North American installed base of 1 million cable modems.

Cahners In-Stat

Approximately 9 percent of U.S. household are currently using some form of broadband Internet access service, with DSL and cable being the two most common forms.

The number of cable modem and DSL subs will increase 77 percent between 1999 and 2004, with service revenues growing from $1 billion last year to $13.3 billion in 2004.

Sixty-five percent of broadband consumers are between the ages of 25 to 44 and have a four year degree, 40 percent are single and 50 percent have an annual household income of at least $50K

Worldwide digital modem shipments exceeded 3.6 million in 1999, with cable modem shipments maintaining a 25% sequential growth rate

Cahners estimated the year-end cable modem market share for 1999 to be: Motorola: 35%; Terayon: 12.5%; Com21: 11.1%; Nortel: 10.1%

19% of all cable modems shipped in the second quarter (1999) were DOCSIS.

Computer Economics

Cable modem use will grow from 5.7 million installed systems in 2000 to 27.6 million systems in 2005.

Between 2000 and 2005, the installed base of DSL lines to increase from 2.4 million to 13.8 million.

Comsys

The demand for broadband connectivity from 100 million (14 million U.S.) SMEs and 600 million households by 2010.

Asia will experience twice the demand of the U.S.

The value of the global broadband market will exceed $580 billion over the next 10 years (through 2010.)

DataMonitor
European Forecasts

Currently (1997) 3 million European homes have online enabled PCs

By 2000, over 8 million European homes will be passed by broadband interactive services

By 2000, over 30 million European homes will have on-line enabled PCs

By the end of 2000, 9,800,000 European homes will be equiped with digital set top boxes

DataQuest

In the second quarter of 2000, DOCSIS modems accounted for 68% of worldwide cable modem shipments; proprietary modems represented 31% of shipments, and DVB/DAVIC modems took a 0.4% share.

DataQuest projects a 40% increase in shipments in Q'3, and a 45% increase for Q'4, bringing total worldwide shipments to 10 million by the end of the year 2000.

Cable modem shipments by vendor:

Cable Modem Shipment Estimates for Q'2
Company	Shipments	Market Share %
Motorola	650,000	32.5%
Terayon	271,000	13.6%
3Com	254,000	12.7%
Com21	184,000	9.2%
Toshiba	150,000	7.5%
Others	490,000	24.5%
Total Market:	1,999,000

The market will reach six million subs this (2000) year, and increase to more than 28 million by 2004, with cable modem subs forecast to grow from 3.3 million to 14 million, and DSL subs to increase from 1.4 million to 9.8 million.

Q'1 2000 Market Share
Vendor	Shipments	Market Share %
Motorola	490,000	33.2
Terayon	173,000	11.7
Com21	154,000	10.4
Samsung	125,000	8.5
Toshiba	122,000	8.3
Others	412,000	27.9
Total	1,476,000	100

Forrester

25% (16 million) or of all online households in the U.S. will have high-speed connectivity to the Internet by 2002

Cable data service subscriptions will grow from 350,000 in mid-1998 to more than 2 million by 2000

Cable data subscriptions will grow to 13.6 million by 2002, (80% of the residential broadband market)

Forward Concepts

By 2000, 4 million cable modems will have been shipped

Modem prices will fall to $209 by 2001, and hardware revenues for the modem vendor will peak at $1.38 billion by 1999

By 2000: Global installed base of 16 million cable modems.

Harris Interactive
The follwing information is from a market survey, conducted on behalf of @Home

Out of 6000 Internet users surveyed,....

@Home was recognized as the #1 broadband brand in 13 markets.

Broadband users spend more than twice as much time online as AOL and other dialup users.

Respondents stated that consumers looking for a new ISP are most concerned with speed, ease of use, and realiability.

An independent survey of more than 69,000 Internet users that measured the perceptions of both current DSL and cable modem users and the folks planning to obtain DSL or cable modem Internet service found...

Approximately 38.9 million US households connect to the Internet, with 3.6 million using high speed services such as cable modem, DSL, ISDN or satellite (2.5 million use cable modem, 850,000 use DSL, and 250,000 using other).

Eighty-five percent of DSL and cable modem users are satisfied with the reliability of service, 90 percent were satisfied with the speed, and 76 percent of cable modem users were satisfied with the amount of time it took to actually have service after placing an order versus 58 percent of DSL users.

Approximately 12.5 percent of Internet users were planning to begin using either DSL or cable modem services within the next six months (2.4 million expecting to obtain DSL, and 2.6 million aiming for cable modem service), and did not see a big difference in either service, with an equal portion of 30 percent believing that both DSL and cable modem connection speeds were consistent.

Of the planning users, approximately half intend to subscribe to the least expensive service, with 57 percent planning to choose the higher speed service.

Infonetics Research

2.3 million cable modems and routers were shipped in Q'3 2000, generating $440 million in revenues, with DSL CPE revenues totaling $512 million in the same period.

Insight Research

Cable modems are leading the residential broadband market with nearly twice as many subs as competing DSL services.

By the end of 2000, Insight projects that the U.S. installed base of cable modems will reach 2 million, compared with an IB of 1.1 million DSL lines for the same period.

Cable will dominate the residential broadband market for the next until 2002-2003.

As of April 2000, 65% of small to medium businesses have connections to the Internet, with 11% of those connected via broadband (DSL and cable modems have nearly equal penetration among these businesses.)

By 2002, the firm projects that 30% of these businesses will have a high-speed connection.

International Data Corporation (IDC)

Total revenues from cable modem shipments to increase from $33 million in 1998 to nearly $550 million in 2003.

U.S. installed base of cable modems will exceed 1.3 million by the end of the year.

By 2003, the firm projects that the U.S. IB will grow to around 9 million.

In 2003, DSL will overtake cable modems in market share.

Cable modem service revenues will rise from $421.9 million in 1999 to $26 billion by 2003.

Jupiter Communications

By 2002, data over cable will control 12% of the consumer Internet access market

The high-speed access market will flatten as a $8 billion market

Kinetic Strategies

DOCSIS network equipment sales will exceed $3 billion through 2003

Cable modem service revenue will reach $11.9 billion through 2003

North American installed base of cable modems will reach 15.9 million by year-end 2003

U.S. installed base of cable modems has reached 2 million by year-end 1999 (with 48 million homes passed) , and 700,000 in Canada

DOCSIS-based services will pass 17% of cable homes in North America by year-end 1999

DOCSIS-based services will pass 83% of cable homes in North America by year-end 2003

DOCSIS modems will outsell proprietary modems for the first time in year 2000

DOCSIS shipments will surpass 2.3 million in the year 2000 (79% of all modems shipped in N.A.)

30+ vendors are developing DOCSIS cable modems

3Com, GI, Samsung, RCA, and Toshiba represented 90% of DOCSIS market for Q�1 & Q�2 �99

Myers

Cable Modem Subs/Penetration %
2000:	3.2 million / 3.1%
2001:	6.2 million / 5.9%
2002:	12.6 million / 12.0%
2003:	18.0 million / 16.3%

Digital Cable Video Subs / Penetration %
2000:	9.8 million / 9.5%
2001:	18 million / 17.3%
2002:	26.4 million / 25.0%
2003:	35.4 million / 33.2%

Pioneer Consulting

Global Cable Modem Market for Residential Users, 1998-2007 (Millions)
Year	North America	Europe	Asia	LA	Africa	Total /ROW Subscribers	Total Service Equipment	Total Revenues
1998	0.35	0.15	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.56	$269	$448.0
1999	0.79	0.45	0.16	0.10	0.00	1.50	$720	$658.0
2000	1.93	1.13	0.72	0.40	0.01	4.18	$2,008	$1,606.5
2001	3.09	2.53	1.88	0.90	0.01	8.41	$3,364	$2,532.5
2002	4.63	4.43	2.82	1.58	0.01	13.47	$5,388	$2,528.5
2003	6.16	6.64	4.23	2.52	0.04	19.59	$7,841	$2,439.2
2004	7.45	8.84	6.35	3.53	0.10	26.26	$10,512	$2,643.7
2005	8.64	11.05	8.88	4.76	0.15	33.49	$12,074	$2,806.4
2006	9.77	12.70	11.10	6.10	0.25	39.92	$14,402	$2,478.6
2007	10.74	13.97	12.77	7.50	0.44	45.43	$16,406	$2,084.4

Strategis Group
Worldwide

By 2003: Global installed base of 8 million cable modems

By the end of '99, cable modem shipments are expected to top 2.2 million.(Half of the shipments will go to the U.S. Other significant markets will include Canada, Japan and the Netherlands)

Cable modem services will pass 3 million homes by the end of 1997

Cable modem service will pass 20 million homes by the end of 2001

In 5 years (2003), the cable modem penetration rate will grow to 25%

There will be more than 3 million xDSL subscribers by 2001

There are nearly 1 million cable modem subscribers today compared to only 100,000 DSL subs.

Estimated number of total cable modem subscribers:

1997	~ $72 million
1998	420,000
1999	1,237,717
2000	2,681,721
2001	4,344,388
2002	6,255,919
2003	8,257,813

Annual data subscription revenues for the next 5 years will be:

1997	$72 million
1998	$371 million
1999	$1.1 billion
2000	$2.1 billion
2001	$3.7 billion

New Technology Subscribers, 1997-2003

	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003
Digital set-top subscribers*	0.7	2.3	4.1	7.2	10.9	14.1	17.7
Cable modem subscribers*	0.1	0.4	1.2	2.7	4.5	6.3	8.2
*in millions

Estimated installed base of cable modems in Latin America:

1998	7000
1999	54,000
2000	190,000
2001	400,000
2002	750,000
2003	1,260,000

40 million homes will subscribe to an Internet service by 2001

17 million homes currently (1997) subscribe to an Internet or online service

Demand for high speed connectivity would increase 85% if data providers cut monthly costs to $25 a month

Current (1997) Internet homes spend an average of 6 hours a week online, including 4 hours on the world wide web

4/5 of the world's 2-way cable modem subs are in North America

1998 global installed based exceeded 1 million units (U.S.: 538,000; Canada: 190,000)

Global two way cable modem shipments reached 955,000 in 1998

Cable modem service was available in about 15 countries in 1998

Global installed base to exceed 7 million in 2001 (U.S.: 3.5 million; Canada: 600,000)

19% of 1998 shipments went to Canada

The Netherlands and Japan represented 5% or more of shipments in 1998

Average wholesale cost of a two way cable modem in 1998 was $300

Projected average wholesale cost of a two cable modem in 1999 is $270

1998 shipments were valued at $286 million

In 1999, Motorola is shipping nearly one-third of the world's cable modems.

About 22% of two cable modem shipped in the first half of '99 were DOCSIS comp.

Com21 has a 8% share and Terayon has 7%

Motorola and Nortel represented 80% of the North American market share in 1998

Nortel was the market leader in Latin America and Europe in 1998

Terayon was the leader in the Asia/Pacific Rim sector in 1998

Telecommunications Reports International

As of 3Q'00, there are 3.5 million cable modem users (up 27% from 2Q'00), with DSL having 1.2 million users.

High-Speed access represents 7% of the online access market

The Yankee Group

U.S. market for residential high-speed Internet services will grow from 1.4 million in 1999 (80% cable modems) to 3.3 million subs this year, reaching 16.6 million subs by 200

Over the next five years, cable modems will represent only 42% of the total installed base of high speed access subscribers at the end of 2004.

About 41% of all U.S. households will have access to a cable modem service by the end of 2000, compared to 24% for DSL.

Slightly less than 65% of PC-owning households were found to be interested in high-speed access, with 40% willing to pay $40 per month for the service.

Households that have been online for three years or more were nearly twice as will to pay for high-speed access as those online for less than one year.

Cable Modem Market Reports

Allied Business Intelligence
"Cable Modems Worldwide: High- Speed Internet Access Over Cable Networks" - 2000
This study examines the deployment of data over cable services in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific Rim and Latin/South America.

"Broadband Delivery to the Local Loop" - 1998 - US$3,995
Growth projections for residential broadband services.

"Wireless Access Solutions to Local Loop Telephony Emerging Markets & Competitive Analysis" - January 1999
Market trends, technologies, listing of existing systems and trials, provider revenues and market share, scenarios for each moderate and aggressive technology forecast and market forecasts by technology and equipment. Player profiles of the major equipment suppliers are also included.

Andrew Prophet Research & Consulting
"Cable Modems: A Market Analysis" - July, 1997 - US$850
Includes info on market trends, applications, technology, and card suppliers.

Baseline (Paul Kagan)
"Paul Kagan's Cable Modems: A Strategic Analysis" - 1998
This report covers market projections, operator and supplier profiles, technology overviews, and implementation issues.

Cahners In-Stat

"Broadband Consumers - Profiles and Strategies" - 2000 - US$2995
This research report explores the U.S. broadband Internet access market, providing market forecasts, demographics, online user habits, and strategies for increasing the customer base.

"Q4 Analog and Digital Modem Market Analysis, CQ0001M7" - February 2000 - US$2995
An ongoing market study that provides market shares for analog, cable and ADSL modem vendors and three quarterly rolling forecasts for the those markets.

"Bandwidth Breakthrough with Cable Modems" - January, 1999 - US$2995
Market forecasts, media security, semiconductor opportunities, cable modem risks at retail and cable ISPs.

"Analog and Digital Modem Market Analysis" (quarterly report) - Q2'99 - $US2995

"Broadband Breakthrough: Cable Modems" - 1997 - US$2,995
Predicts the shipment volume, installed base and purchasing commitments of several markets around the world. The telephone return, bi-directional and wireless markets are also covered.

CIT Research
"Cable Communications in Europe 1998" - January 1999 - £ 2985
Strategies, players, services, markets, MSOs, digital cable (and digital terrestrial), pay TV, tiering, VOD, tariffs, interactive TV, cable telephony, cable Internet, MMDS in the European market.

Communications Industry Researchers
"Beyond T1/E1: A Global Study of Broadband Access Technology Opportunities"
May, 1997 - US$6000/per volume $9950 for both volumes
Volume 1 - Analyzes the opportunities in the North American market for business and residential service providers and technology suppliers
Volume 2 - Analyzes the equivalent markets in Western Europe, Asia, the Pacific Rim and Latin America.

Comsys
"The Broadband Report" - 2000 - US$2495
This study is on the global broadband addressable demand over the next 10 years. The report analyzes demand on a country by country basis in both the small and midsize enterprise (SME) and household markets.

Cowles/Simba
"Cable Modem Report: Business Dimensions & Market Opportunities" - May, 1996 - US$1,095
Including info on the impact of high speed data on entertainment, education, publishing, consumer marketing, and home businesses. The report also includes market projections.

DataQuest
"The Residential Broadband Revolution: Finally" - 2000
This study assesses the state of the U.S. residential broadband market and examines deployment, technology and applications/service issues and trends that will affect services over the next five years.

"Worldwide Cable Modem Market Share and Forecast, 1999" - 1999
In-depth market analysis and forecasts for the cable modem market of 2000. The report also tracks deployments for the first quarter of the year.

eMarketer
"Business of Broadband Report" - 2000 - US$1195
This report details the size and growth of the broadband market and revenue projections for broadband providers. It is designed to help businesses understand and take advantage of various broadband technologies including: DSL, Video-on-demand, Fiber optics, Cable modems, Satellite and Wireless. This report also gives the reader numbers from leading research groups and the objective analysis for determining the reality of broadband access from the hype.

Forrester
"Cable Modems Kick In" - January, 1997 - US$ ?
Includes the history of the data over cable industry and a projection on how the technology will impact the end-user.

"Broadband Hits Home" - September 1998
Projections for the growth of the residential broadband market.

Forward Concepts
"Broadband in the Local Loop: Cable Modem Madness vs. xDSL Dementia" - 1998 - US$2,750
Provides projections for cable modem market growth through the year 2002 as well as insight into competitive technologies and the effect of IP technologies on the Internet's growth.

"Cable Modem Technologies and Trends" - 1997 - US$1,195
Includes info on vendors, applications, market projections, and competitive technologies.

Frost & Sullivan
"U.S. Desktop Modem Markets" - March 1998 - US$2950.00
Projects the growth of all modem market segments including cable modems.

The Information Network
"High-Speed Datacom Chipsets: Products, Applications, Markets" - 1998 - $US800
Examines the short and long term benefits of each of the 100 Mbit/s and greater standards (ATM, FDDI, and Fast Ethernet), and how each will move toward dominance in terms of: availability of integrated chip solutions; progress of standards groups; cost; developments; and the opportunities and pitfalls. It also presents a forecast of the growth of each of these markets.

Infonetics Research
"Broadband Hardware: IADs, DSL, and Cable" - Quarterly publication
This report forecasts the markets for DSL CPE (ADSL, SDSL, IDSL), cable modems and routers, multi-service routers, and T1 IADs.

Insight Research
"DSL vs. Cable Modems: The Future of High-Speed Internet Access" - 2000 - $US4195
The report includes a five-year forecast of servable DSL lines, DSL and cable modem penetration rates, ILEC and CLEC DSL service revenue, price per DSL port, and DSLAM equipment revenue.

"ADSL, xDSL, or Cable Modems: The Future of High-Speed Internet Access 1999-2004" - 4/2000 - $US4195
The report provides five year forecasts of servable DSL lines, DSL vs. cable modem penetration rates for residential and small/medium business customers, ILEC vs. CLEC DSL lines, price per DSL port, DSLAM equipment revenue, and T-1/ISDN/fiber/other penetration. The study also touches on regulatory and technical issues.

International Data Corporation (IDC)
"The Cable Man Cometh: U.S. Residential Data-Over-Cable Services Market Assessment and Forecast, 1998-2003" - November 1999 - US$4,500
This study includes a forecast of U.S. residential cable modem services and revenue through 2003, a midyear 1999 market share breakdown of MSOs and major cable ISPs, a discussion of market trends, and some service provider profiles.

"Cable Modems Conquer Europe; Western Europe Cable Modem Market Review and Forecast by Country, 1998-2003" - 1999
Includes an overview of the size of the market as well as vendor market shares, profiles, and a standards discussion.

"Worldwide ADSL and Cable Modem Semiconductor Market Forecast and Analysis, 1999-2004" - 2000 - US$2500
This report describes how asymmetric digital subscriber line (ADSL) and cable modem semiconductors are faring in the broadband access battle.

Jupiter Communications
"Telco and Cable Internet Strategies" - November, 1997 - US$1,895
Market projections covering telco and cable companies.

Kinetic Strategies
"DOCSIS Infrastructure Deployment Forecast: 1999-2003" - November 1999 - US$995
Report includes projections on: DOCSIS network equipment sales; cable modem service revenue; North American installed base; and DOCSIS shipments.

Multimedia Research Group
"IP Video and Streaming Media - Servers and Services Market Overview" 1999-2001 - 1999 - US$3495
Focuses on the impact of streaming media on the Internet and on providers. Company profiles or strategic studies are presented for Cisco, HP, IBM, Inktomi, RealNetworks, Microsoft, Sun, Tektronics, @Home, RoadRunner, Broadcast.Com, Concentric, GTE, BMC Software, CNN, the WWF, Bloomberg, ZDNet, and NBC.

Myers
"The Cable Digital Broadband Report"
This report provides information on the development and deployment of cable technologies including forecasts for cable modem service and digital video penetration.

OmniMedia Associates
"High Speed Internet Service Provision for Cable Systems -- Getting There from Here " - US$995.00 Others $1095.00
Includes information regarding upgrading systems, providing Internet access, and an overview of competitive technologies.

Ovum
"Broadband Access: New Business Models" - 2000 - US$3695
This report explores the opportunities and strategies for broadband service providers.

"Cable Modems: Stealing the Broadband Market" - February, 1997 - US$2775
Includes market projections for data over cable services.

Parks Associates
"Surfing a New Wave: Consumers and Emerging Internet Access Platforms" - 1999
Includes a survey of 1,520 U.S. households that subscribe to dial-up Internet access services.

Paul Budde Communication
"Global: Cable TV" - October, 1997
Market information on cable modems, cable telephony, and SMATV.

PRGGuide
"Cable Modems: Strategic Opportunities and Forecasts to 2000" - October, 1996 - US$2,800
Projections & strategies.

"U.S. High-Speed Data Modems: Next Generation Networking Access" - March, 1997 - US$2395
Market projections

"Broadband High-Speed Cable Data Network:
Industry trends and Directions for HFC, DBS and MMDS" - June, 1996 - US$2395
Includes info on data and telephony services over cable, wireless cable and satellite.

Ryan, Hankin & Kent
"Cable Modems: Business Case and North American Forecast" - 1997
Forecasts for market growth through 2002, as well as including a complete business model for offering data services.

"The International Cable Modem Opportunity" - 1997
Regulatory and competitive issues; the vendor market; and global opportunities, and forecasts.

Sanford C. Bernstein
"Broadband!" - 2000 - $US5000
This report includes: a comparison of distribution platforms; an overview of standards, regulations, and risk; tutorial on the fundamentals of broadband data; an economical overview of broadband voice; a take on the impact of broadband on other industries; and 5-year estimates on: penetration & market share, revenues, costs, & industry income statements.

The Strategis Group
"U.S. Cable Trends 2000" - 2000
This is an annual study on the cable telecom market. The findings in this report include: U.S. MSOs served 1.45 cable modem subs at the end of 1999; subs to grow to nearly 11.7 million by the end of 2004; 50% of all U.S. cable homes are passed by 2-way capable plant, and that by the end of 2001, more than 90% of cable homes will be 2-way. Revenues from cable modem services is estimated to be to nearly $3.6 billion in 2004.

"Residential High-Speed Internet: Cable Modems, DSL, and Wireless Broadband" - December 1999 -Electronic Version Price = $US2750.00; Print Version Price = $US3250.00
This report explores the current state of the high-speed market and provides insight into where it is headed. Key findings and data include: Cable Modem, DSL and Wireless technologies and deployment issues; current deployment information; deployment profiles for major high-speed operators; competitive positioning of high-speed technologies; high-speed demand profiles and characteristics; high-speed subscriber forecasts; and high-speed service and equipment revenue forecasts.

"Latin America Cable & Satellite Television and Telecommunications Markets: 1999 - 1999 - US$2500 (Hard copy) $3750 (PDF or HTML)
Information on the pay television and cable modem markets in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Venezuela, the Caribbean, Central America, and other South American markets; as well as profiles on providers such as Megacable in Mexico and Cablevision in Argentina.

"Cable Trends: 1999" - August 1999 - US$1425 (pdf or html) / $950 (Hard copy)
A plethora of industry related projections including sub numbers for data and telephony over cable.

"DataBank: World Two-Way Cable Modem Manufacturers, Operators, and Shipments." - March 1999 - $2400
An ongoing cable modem market study on the bi-directional cable modem market. The research is available via CD-ROM and will be updated twice a year.

"World Cable & Satellite Markets" - February 1999 - Paper Copy: $2300 / PDF or HTML: $3450
Provides an overview of the global cable and satellite industry including: multichannel television, broadband services (data, Internet, multimedia), and cable telephony. Also includes profiles of the regulatory and competitive environment, cable and direct broadcast satellite operators, and new service activity for over 50 countries; as well as country, region, and world-level forecasts of cable and satellite DTH/DBS subscribers and revenues.

"Cable Trends: 1998" - June 1998 - Paper $650; CD-Rom $975
Projects the growth of different aspects of the cable business including operator revenues, average revenues per subscriber, and the number of cable modem and digital set-top box users.

Vertical Systems
"Broadband Industry Update" - 2000
This updated study provides a "real world" perspective on critical market planning questions such as: Internet access, network services, bandwidth demand and applications, and equipment.